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CT Hockey Ratings

Poll on CT Hockey Ratings

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Are the ratings / rankings accurate?

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80 Comments

  1. Anonymous

    February 12, 2017 at 6:40 pm

    myhockeyrankings are more accurate — why not just use those?

    • HockeyMom

      February 13, 2017 at 8:31 am

      Unless they have changed the system, MyHockeyRankings is only as good as the people entering results. Some teams will have 3 games, some 30.

      • Cam

        February 13, 2017 at 2:53 pm

        mom is this u

        • Anonymous

          October 25, 2018 at 8:03 am

          That site is terrible. We entered a tournament in which all 6 teams were within +/- 25 national spots. We won with a goal differential of at least +30.

    • Admin

      February 13, 2017 at 5:30 pm

      I have heard this argument a few times. I am not sure there has been a head to head comparison of “accuracy”. Sounds like a great statistics project.

  2. Bill Fuxon

    February 12, 2017 at 10:12 pm

    How can the poll be answered when very few have any idea what is included in the ratings calculus?-

    • Anonymous

      February 13, 2017 at 11:08 am

      i agree criteria for rankings should be published prior to the season starting.

  3. Games are Played on ice not in computers

    February 13, 2017 at 8:17 am

    Does CHC pay for the use of these rankings?

    Is there a reason that strength of schedule is not reported?

    • Admin

      February 13, 2017 at 5:37 pm

      CT Hockey Ratings receives $0 from the CHC.

      I have no children playing in the CHC. I am not associated with any organization. I have been providing hockey ratings for the past 5 years on this site to assist with tournament assignments.

      To provide additional background:

      The rating of a team (at time = 2) is based upon your team’s rating (at time = 1) , the opponent’s team rating (at time = 1) and the score of the game between the two teams.

      The score of the game between the two teams is predicted based on the ratings of the teams (prior to the game).

      The rating of each team will move according to the actual result compared with the predicted result.

      So for example, if Team A is predicted to beat Team B by a score of 2-0, but the score is actually 2-1 Team A’s rating will fall and Team B’s rating will rise. The exact amount of rise and fall depends on the ratings of each team and the score.

      I hope that helps. Please let me know if you have further questions.

      • JD

        February 13, 2017 at 9:33 pm

        So if Team A beats Team B early in the season while team B has a low rating but by the end of the season Team B has a high rating then Team A doesn’t get credit for beating an eventually highly ranked team? Or vice Versa? Shouldn’t a teams rating adjust as that victory becomes more or less impressive? Doesn’t quite make sense to me.

        If you continue to rank like this then there should be no officiall rankings until each team has played at least half their mandatory games to create a more accurate ranking. then roll out a first set of rankings. Does that make sense?

      • TM

        February 18, 2017 at 3:12 pm

        Do all team start with the same rating at the beginning of the season (time = 0)? If not, how are the initial ratings determined?

      • Bob

        November 21, 2018 at 3:51 pm

        For Bantams how come the current rankings have the #3 team in the country on MyHockeyRankings.com rated at #43?????

        Why do the headlines have Nico’s death at the top? It great to still remember him but it makes the site look like it has not been touched since last February and is now defunct??? A lot has happened in the Hockey world since then. For Example the Humboldt Broncos tragedy, out State tournaments, The Stanley Cup, ect ect ect ….

        I hope that the CHC will not refer to this site for our state tournament unless it takes what it posts here seriously. Right now it is nothing but a joke. I would be embarrassed to be the person in charge of this site.

        I would really like to know what do think, or better have to say for yourself????

  4. Anonymous

    February 13, 2017 at 9:23 am

    Can this update please

    • Admin

      February 13, 2017 at 5:39 pm

      Bantams are now live.
      PW and squirts to be posted on Wednesday (but hopefully sooner).

      • Anonymous

        February 20, 2017 at 9:59 am

        Something was wrong with the Bantam Campbell conference tournament. Placing Northwestern A in that bracket was a mistake. They easily won every team, including a 9-1 finals game. Additionally, I believe they were a 5 seed in the bracket of 8.

  5. Anonymous

    February 13, 2017 at 11:55 am

    Strength of schedule should be considered like myhockeyrankings.com

    • Cam

      February 14, 2017 at 10:45 am

      it is

  6. Anonymous

    February 13, 2017 at 12:09 pm

    Big improvement over last year.

  7. Rich

    February 13, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    I think you have to explain how the whole process works. I know its supposed to take into account strength of schedule, but its hard to understand. You have teams in Bantams with 10/14/2 ahead of a team that is 22/8/3 and split and team won a game against the other.
    The rankings will have a lot more credibility if people are able to understand the mechanics behind it. Just my 2 cents.

  8. Guy Racino

    February 13, 2017 at 12:49 pm

    Some transparency on the rating system is necessary. What mathematical model is being used? What are the game results being feed into the system. What quality assurance is being performed to verify data accuracy?

    Biggest questions is why did CHC feel the need to develop a rating system from scratch when there are some already being utilized in hockey…..KRACH system comes to mind. College hockey uses KRACH, so does EJEPL.
    Even MyHockeyRankings would be better then this attempt to reinvent the wheel!!

  9. Lou

    February 13, 2017 at 1:49 pm

    Although the concept is good, The website is not updated as often or quickly as it should be. In addition, it appears some teams are holding back their results skewing the accuracy of the ratings. Penalties should be assessed for not promptly submitting results.

    • Admin

      February 13, 2017 at 5:40 pm

      Thank you for your comment. These are all good points and they have been referred to the CHC for consideration.

  10. Bill Laramee

    February 13, 2017 at 2:20 pm

    I agree with teams being required to update promptly.

    If a team is more than a week behind they should “vanish” from the rankings until they get caught up.

    Fall behind 3 times and they should vanish for the year.

    • Admin

      February 13, 2017 at 5:59 pm

      100% agree. Updating promptly is a key factor in ensuring data integrity. I will forward your comments to the CHC.

  11. Guy Racino

    February 13, 2017 at 6:41 pm

    The way you explain the predictor’s effect seems like a team gets penalized for not meeting the Vegas odds!!

  12. Anonymous

    February 13, 2017 at 7:06 pm

    How important does the timing of the game played make into the ratings? Recent results seem to make a lot more impact than older games. We all need to understand transparency of the model being used. Clearly, there is no benefit to playing higher ranked teams.

    • Admin

      February 14, 2017 at 11:14 am

      Games played more recently have more of an impact on the rating. What game is more indicative of a rating of a team? the first game played or the last game played?

      Before you answer that, please consider:

      1) rosters change over time due to injuries and players leaving for other leagues (high school, more competitive leagues); and the performance of a team with its current roster is probably most indicative of its playing level.
      2) all teams get better over time. this can be dramatic or mild, but a team is very, very rarely the same team it was the day it stepped on the ice in September. so a team’s recent performance is more indicative of its ability right now.

      • Anonymous

        February 16, 2017 at 4:45 pm

        Maybe good for seeding teams in the tournament, but it’s not applicable for determining who makes the tournament….. that should be decided by a teams whole body of work throughout the season. That’s why you play a season….isn’t it?

  13. Anonymous

    February 13, 2017 at 11:00 pm

    If I understand the ratings correctly you need to not only beat a team but beat them by a predicted goal amount. I have seen that difference to be rather large at times which forces coaches who are focused on “moving up” the rankings to win by as much as possible. Some coaches don’t believe in that theory which can hurt the team’s rankings. Not sure I have an answer to improve it maybe limit the goal differential to 5 goals.

    • Admin

      February 14, 2017 at 11:03 am

      That is a great point and suggestion. Currently, the goal differential greater than 6 does not really contribute to a team’s position. I believe myhockey uses a differential of 7.

      Other suggestions have included that if the expected differential is 6 or greater, the game will not count for ratings purposes but treated solely as an exhibition.

      • S

        February 14, 2017 at 1:11 pm

        Very bad suggestion. One weekend my team was supposed to lose three games by 6 or more goals. We won 7-2. 2-1 and lost 3-1. So the predictor is not accurate.

      • Anonymous

        February 15, 2017 at 8:47 am

        This is a key point. I agree with the exhibition but what about the 5 goal spread? Perhaps a sliding scale would solve the issue. Maybe 0-2 goal spreads would count 100%, 3&4 goal spreads 75%, 5 goal 50% and 6+ 25%.
        This may also reduce the inevitable rating volatility that is created by larger spread games.

  14. Kevin

    February 14, 2017 at 9:36 am

    System is good. It makes no difference what the formula used is (although it would be nice to know it). All teams are ranked using the same system which takes into account strength of schedule, margin of victory and margin of defeat. In that sense it is very similar to my hockey, however if only takes into account CHC games, as it should. Seem like it is fair for all.

  15. Anonymous

    February 14, 2017 at 12:11 pm

    Only complaint is seeing teams that play a B/C schedule of play being ranked higher than those that play an A/A1 schedule.

    • Admin

      February 15, 2017 at 6:11 pm

      Please consider the fact that CT Hockey Ratings take the data as it finds it. The CHC nor CT Hockey Ratings put any restrictions on what teams the schedulers arranged to play (other than geography). If all teams intentionally do not play a variety of opponents, the value of the system is limited.

      Please also consider that one of the goals of going to a rating methodology was to eliminate self-rating and forcing other teams in a league to play your own team when it was not warranted – either your team was too good for the league you registered (i.e., sandbagging) or not good enough (i.e., playing up).

      By taking into account the strength of each opponent, the methodology tries to eliminate these problems.

  16. Anonymous

    February 15, 2017 at 8:51 am

    Also I hate that teams do not pull the goalie and try to win or tie games anymore for fear of the impact on their rankings.
    If there was a way to lessen the impact of open net goals so our children learn to compete rather than lose less it would be an improvement.

    • Admin

      February 15, 2017 at 6:03 pm

      Agreed.

  17. Anonymous

    February 15, 2017 at 9:00 am

    I can only assume the delay is a result of processing. Is it possible the CHC made things more complicated than they needed to with things like a make up week?

    Why not just tell teams the season starts Sept 16th and ends Feb 12th and here is what you need to do. Even if you do not play Thanksgiving weekend playing just Sat and Sun each week gets you to 26 games by Dec 18th. If you cant get the games in and don’t fulfill your requirements shame on you.

  18. Ty

    February 15, 2017 at 11:02 am

    I found the score predictor to be fairly accurate towards the end of the season, so I think it does a pretty good job overall. There will always be a few outliers.

    Some strong guidelines from the CHC for schedulers/who to play may help, though that tends to happen naturally, but I agree required timeliness of score reporting is needed to help the schedulers know where teams stand at all times. There were significant moves towards the end of the season when the hold-outs entered their games and that doesn’t help anyone.

    • Admin

      February 15, 2017 at 6:11 pm

      Agreed. CHC is focused on this issue.

  19. Anonymous

    February 15, 2017 at 5:30 pm

    What time can we expect to see the PeeWee and Squirt ratings come out today?

  20. Admin

    February 15, 2017 at 6:12 pm

    This is only a guess, but very late tonight. I apologize.

  21. JR

    February 17, 2017 at 1:02 am

    When will squirt tournaments be listed ?

    • Admin

      February 17, 2017 at 10:01 am

      I just got of the phone with CHC rep working on it right now.

  22. Carlton

    February 17, 2017 at 10:21 am

    What about teams that only play 26, its not fair to any other team that plays over 26 games. If team A’s record was 20-6-0 on Feb 5th and team B was 20-10-0, team A would be ranked higher (if they played the same teams). How is that fair to team B, it would be in the best interest (ratings wise) for team B to only schedule the 26 games or only report games that covered the spread. To fix this CHC should only be using the first 26 CHC games, if that means you have all 26 by mid December then so be it. The current system is flawed, you have teams holding scores back or possibly not reporting games that could possibly lose them points. The chc should enforce a 48 hour rule, if a team hasn’t submitted the scores within the 48 hour time frame they lose 1 point.

    I don’t understand how a team that is 12-13-5 is ranked higher than a team that is 22-6-6, both have played similar teams/ranked opponents.
    Team A (bumped out of tier 2)
    Overall CHC Record: 22-6-6
    Head to Head Record: 1-0-1
    Record vs Common Opponents: 14-6-4
    Record vs Final Top 20 Teams: 14-6-6
    Record vs Final Top 10 Teams: 2-5-2
    Team B (Moved up to tier 2)
    Overall CHC Record: 12-13-5
    Head to Head Record: 0-1-1
    Record vs Common Opponents: 6-11-2
    Record vs Final Top 20 Teams: 5-12-5
    Record vs Final Top 10 Teams: 2-7-3

    The model used needs to be public knowledge, we should see what the spread is at the time of the game (added to the game log). There are teams that know how to play the system and do so, making these few changes will avoid this.

  23. Pete

    February 17, 2017 at 12:26 pm

    why are the rating still fluctuating for some squirt teams? Is there additional reviews being conducted? I noticed at least three since the initial release on Thursday AM.

    • Admin

      February 17, 2017 at 12:37 pm

      Ratings were updated this morning only for the Girls teams U10 and U12. These teams were not refreshed in prior updates.

  24. Ty

    February 17, 2017 at 1:01 pm

    Carlton — a team can’t hold back scores. If you play a game vs a CHC team between 9/16 and 2/5 it counts. If you don’t want to play more than 26 games than don’t.

    The spread can be checked prior to the game using the Score Predictor — I did this for my son’s team the last 6 weeks of the season it is very helpful.

    • Carlton

      February 17, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      ok so they can’t hold back scores…… Why then did west Hartford jump 4 spots, looks like they held scores back until the end.

  25. Just Curious

    February 17, 2017 at 3:45 pm

    How is it that Darien squirt A1 is #10 and Darien A is #17? That makes no sense. What am I missing?

  26. Pete

    February 17, 2017 at 5:35 pm

    if the girls u10 & u12 were just refreshed (& they dropped significantly) why did wins or loses to those teams have no impact on teams that have played against them? Shouldn’t there have been some corresponding fluctuations in their strength of schedule?

    • Admin

      February 17, 2017 at 5:40 pm

      The ratings were all refreshed at the same time at the squirts and pee wees, just not published.

  27. Anonymous

    February 21, 2017 at 9:28 am

    When will the Pee Wee parings be posted

  28. Anonymous

    February 21, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    When will peewee tournaments be listed?

    • Admin

      February 21, 2017 at 5:56 pm

      I am told they were ready, but there was a team that dropped out at the last minute. That causes an odd number of teams in the brackets and all sorts of rearranging havoc.

  29. Patrick Copy

    February 22, 2017 at 2:06 pm

    Why not just move each team up one spot…simple

  30. Anonymous

    February 24, 2017 at 10:49 am

    AGREE

  31. Hockey Coach

    July 14, 2017 at 8:29 am

    can you please update the overall program rankings as it seems that they may be outdated. I think what you do is a helpful tool for scheduling etc…

  32. Hockey Dad

    October 4, 2017 at 10:37 am

    When are the news polls going to be posted for the 2017-2018 season

  33. Hockey Dad

    October 23, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    Are the ratings going to get updated soon or they going to stay at 100 for everyone??

  34. Hockey Dad

    October 24, 2017 at 1:37 pm

    When are the ratings going to be updated. Like to see how we fare against some teams that are coming up on our schedule. Please update soon..

  35. Admin

    October 24, 2017 at 3:14 pm

    Hi Hockey Dad,
    Ratings will be released on November 24 as per the CHC.
    I apologize for the delay.

    • Hockey Dad

      October 26, 2017 at 2:06 pm

      Thank you

  36. Carlton

    December 5, 2017 at 6:20 pm

    On which day do the rankings get refreshed?

    • Admin

      December 8, 2017 at 2:51 am

      I am trying to do them on Thursday night for release on Friday.

  37. Carlton

    January 25, 2018 at 12:24 pm

    Why haven’t the ratings been updated, last update was on the 16th? We beat a team that was ranked 10th at the time, they moved back 7 places and we stayed the same???? Another team lost two games, one to a team 15 spots behind them and they didn’t move?

    I find it funny that Northeast Peewee B have played 0 games yet they are in 75th place. How is that even possible?

  38. Anonymous

    February 4, 2018 at 3:46 pm

    Over all, I find CT hockey Ratings to be pretty accurate and a useful tool.

    2 Suggestions though. 1 Figure out a way to account for players cross rostered on teams. Several teams in Bantams change there line ups based on there competition. This basically sandbags there stats and gives them a huge advantage going in to the tournaments. 2 Loose the ” only the first 2 games between teams counts toward standings” rule. The most recent 2 games would give a more accurate representation of how teams are progressing through the season.

  39. Anonymous

    February 10, 2018 at 2:07 pm

    I have no idea how these ratings are done – in looking at Bantam – How is the Southern Single A team ranked 4th, when they are 1-2 against teams currently in the top 8? Based on their results, they have played an A1 schedule.

  40. Carlton

    February 11, 2018 at 9:30 am

    First, I love that you never answer any of my posts, is it because I bring up good points that you cant argue…..

    I said this last year (with no reply), if Team A has a record of 21-5 (meeting the minimum number of games) their point average would be 80.77. If Team B had a record of 32-8 they would have a point average of 80.00. How is it fair to team b that their rating be lower because they played a higher number of games. There is a reason all professional teams play the same number of games, this needs to be changed. Instead of having a cut off date have a game number cut off (26), anything over 26 games wouldn’t count toward the standings that places them for the tournament. If a team chooses to play 26 chc games in the first 13 weeks then the rest of the season would be for the national rankings. I realize the more games you play the more accurate the rating will be, but its not comparing apples to apples.

    • Anonymous

      February 22, 2018 at 8:18 am

      Pro teams do play the same number of games, but that’s because the pros rank by win/loss, and not strength of schedule. When CHC used the tier system, each team in tiers 2 and 3 played the same number of games against the other teams in that tier. So it used to go by win/loss.

      Now, this system ranks based on strength. It is entirely possible for a team on a losing streak to move up in the rankings, if they lost to higher ranking teams. It is also possible that a team on a winning streak could move down in the rankings.

      If team A – rated 85 beat team B – rated 65, (let’s say the score was 99-0), they would still move down in the ranking because the max goal differential is 6. So the result from that game, 71 (6 goals from the win plus team B’s rating of 65), would be included in averaging of team A’s rating, bringing it down. Likewise, team B would move up, because the result of 79 (team A’s ranking of 85 minus the 6 goals from the loss) would be averaged into their rating.

      I’m not the admin, and I don’t know the exact math used in this system, but I think this is the way it works.

      • Anonymous

        February 22, 2018 at 10:38 pm

        I do not believe that strength of schedule figures in to the rankings all that much. I had made a comment before around the second Southern Bantam team. They are ranked 4th and have ONLY one win against a Top 8 team (ranked 8th by the way) and the only other games against Top 8 competition was against the other Southern Bantam team which they lost to twice. I would love to understand how they rank 4th having played a TIER 3 schedule all year.

        • Admin

          February 22, 2018 at 10:53 pm

          I agree that if a team plays a Tier 2 schedule and achieves a .500 winning percentage would justify participation at that level.

          Please also consider a team that plays a Tier 3 schedule and beats its opponents by a wide margin may not belong in Tier 3, but perhaps belongs in Tier 2.

      • Admin

        February 22, 2018 at 10:42 pm

        Yes, it is possible for a team to rise in ratings by losing, and fall in rating by winning.
        If you lose to a team that is better than yours by a smaller than expected margin, your rating will rise.
        Conversely, if you beat a team that is worse than your by a smaller than expected margin, your rating will fall.

        I understand this is a concept that is hard to accept if you believe that wins should matter more than goal differential.
        It is not a perfect solution, but it provides a rating methodology that allows for complete flexibility of scheduling and it solves the problem of teams over/under declaring.

  41. Its wrong

    February 27, 2018 at 3:07 pm

    Southern Bantam 2nd Team rating is a fraud-now you have a bracket that strong one that is weak. They played a tier 3 schedule-fix it

    1 New Canaan Wildcats A 27-7-8 87.67 2.83 84.84
    2 Southern CT Stars AA 26-12-5 87.62 1.29 86.33
    3 Wonderland Wizards A 34-7-6 87.53 2.25 85.28
    4 Simsbury A 18-8-2 86.21 2.67 83.53
    5 Ridgefield Lions AA 9-11-3 85.99 0.34 85.65
    6 Darien Wave A 19-16-8 85.91 0.48 85.42
    7 Southern CT Stars A 27-12-3 85.15 2.02 83.12
    8 Greenwich Skate Club A 19-14-9 84.09 0.02 84.07
    9 Wonderland Wizards A1 22-11-5 83.69 1.39 82.30
    10 Central CT Capitals (Half) A 9-8-1 83.45 -0.44 83.89

  42. Anonymous

    March 2, 2018 at 11:08 pm

    The fraudsters may prove “Its wrong” to be a fraudster in prognostication.

  43. Christopher Koehler

    November 17, 2018 at 8:07 pm

    How is it that our team is 5-1 in CHC games, ranked 37th and a team we beat 15 to ZERO – repeat 15-0 that is 3-4-1 in CHC games is ranked 13th?

    • Admin

      November 23, 2018 at 12:51 pm

      Mr. Koehler,
      Can you please specify your team and the other team you are referring to.
      Thank you

  44. DK

    January 4, 2019 at 8:12 am

    Dear Sir,

    Is there a scheduled update on your site every week? I know many coaches and players come on here to check the rankings and are often confused to when the rankings are updated. Please let me know if we will see more consistency going forward? Thanks for the help.

  45. BSA

    October 16, 2019 at 9:51 am

    ETA on 2019/2020 ratings? CHC said it would start weekly on 9/22

    • Admin

      October 18, 2019 at 2:33 pm

      We are live now. I apologize for the delay. Scores are being uploaded in a way that requires more time and effort on my side.

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