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CT Hockey Ratings

Final Ratings – February 6, 2019

Games through February 4 will count towards ratings.
Games on February 5 will NOT count.

Game log:  5 – game log (2019-02-05)

______________________________________________________________________

Added 1 game to log:  Northeastern Y-10U A v Yale Y-10U A

Game log: 5 – game log (2019-02-05) v2

 

85 Comments

  1. CT Hockey

    November 14, 2018 at 1:09 pm

    It seems that strength of schedule isn’t considered in your rankings. Is this the case or will be incorporated later in the 18/19 season?

    • Admin

      November 23, 2018 at 12:49 pm

      Today’s refresh should make more sense today.

  2. Hockey Dad

    November 16, 2018 at 11:27 am

    Are you going to update the rankings this week?

    • Admin

      November 23, 2018 at 12:50 pm

      Just finished.

      • CS

        January 24, 2019 at 12:21 pm

        It’s crunch time. You should really be updating these standings more frequently There’s been too many weekends where we had no accurate score predictor!!
        Please do ASAP

        • Admin

          January 24, 2019 at 3:37 pm

          Ratings are updated

  3. PWB Coach

    November 16, 2018 at 4:09 pm

    To Admin – the Wallingford Hawks love your service. As a coach, I use the team rating as a barometer for how well I have served my students/players. I look forward to the next update.

  4. John Mead

    November 17, 2018 at 2:03 pm

    These ratings are accurate???

    AA teams rated behind B1 teams. Scary that these are being used to determine Tournament seeds.

    • Admin

      November 23, 2018 at 12:50 pm

      Today’s refresh should address your concerns.

      • Bantams

        November 24, 2018 at 8:14 am

        Kent A, East Haven AAA and Greenwich Skate U14 Girls can all be removed from the rankings at the bantam level. Thanks

      • Bantams

        November 24, 2018 at 8:22 am

        Southeastern B1 and Griffin can also be moved from the Bantam rankings.

  5. George

    November 19, 2018 at 8:49 am

    As the ratings do not appear to be dynamic (as in your rating against a team is based on their placing at the time you play them) it would benefit CHC to either not start rating teams so early or get it right. After the top 5 teams, the ratings fall apart. A two goal loss to Ridgefield AA hurts a team while a two goal loss to Ridgefield A can help a team. Ratings cannot be based just on wins. The quality of opponents has to be validated as well.

  6. Stale Ratings

    December 17, 2018 at 10:28 am

    This hasn’t been updated in almost two weeks.

    • Admin

      December 18, 2018 at 9:51 am

      CT Hockey Ratings was being denied access to the CHC site.
      I hope to have it updated tomorrow.
      Sorry for the delay and thank you for your patience.

  7. Brian

    December 18, 2018 at 8:20 am

    hi-

    Any updates on when the new rankings will be published ? game log is still at 12/6. Thanks

    • Admin

      December 18, 2018 at 9:51 am

      CT Hockey Ratings was being denied access to the CHC site.
      I hope to have it updated tomorrow.
      Sorry for the delay and thank you for your patience.

  8. Hockey ?

    December 18, 2018 at 8:22 am

    When’s the next rating update being released?

    • Admin

      December 18, 2018 at 9:51 am

      CT Hockey Ratings was being denied access to the CHC site.
      I hope to have it updated tomorrow.
      Sorry for the delay and thank you for your patience.

  9. Anonymous

    December 20, 2018 at 3:25 pm

    How do scores missing from the game log get added. There are 12/16 games that are recorded on the CHC website but missing from the game log and therefore not included in the ratings

    • Admin

      December 23, 2018 at 2:05 pm

      They should be automatically be added in the next refresh.

  10. Anonymous

    December 22, 2018 at 3:36 pm

    When is the final day for ranking team I know 2 years ago it was early February

    • Admin

      December 23, 2018 at 2:03 pm

      Games through February 4 count.
      Games on February 5 will not count

  11. Anonymous

    December 22, 2018 at 5:41 pm

    When will the final day for ratings to not count

    • Admin

      December 23, 2018 at 2:02 pm

      I am told that the last day of the season is February 4.
      February 5 games will not count.

  12. Natalie

    December 29, 2018 at 8:08 am

    Northern lights U10 silver doesn’t show up in the ratings even though are games are in the game log and we are chc – why is that?

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:20 pm

      My apologies. This has been corrected.

  13. Hockey ?

    January 4, 2019 at 4:01 pm

    Will ratings get updated today? Thank you.

  14. Jimmy

    January 4, 2019 at 7:06 pm

    I do not understand the ratings, as Wonderland Bantam B and Yale Bantam A are ranked higher than Watertown Bantam A as Watertown beat the teams 6-0 and 9-3

  15. Anonymous

    January 8, 2019 at 9:04 am

    Up to which day, will the scores count for the 2019 rankings?

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:28 pm

      Games through February 4 count.
      Games on February 5 will not count

  16. Rating ?

    January 8, 2019 at 10:50 pm

    With 4 weeks left in CHC season, when will the ratings get updated again? Can teams count on them being updated on a consistent and accurate basis at the same time each week until the end of the season? Thank you

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:24 pm

      My apologies – i am back from international travel today.

  17. Anonymous

    January 9, 2019 at 10:06 am

    When do you expect the next update?

  18. Rating ?

    January 11, 2019 at 7:48 am

    When will ratings get updated? Last one was 3 weeks ago and with only ~3 weeks left in CHC season, the score predictor is becoming more important. Thank you!

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:24 pm

      My apologies – i am back from international travel today.

  19. Pete

    January 11, 2019 at 9:29 am

    Are new rankings going to be posted this week?

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:23 pm

      My apologies – i am back from international travel today.

  20. Chris

    January 11, 2019 at 11:00 am

    Are we going to see an update anytime soon on the rankings? It’s been a few weeks and we are coming down to the last few weeks of games. As a scheduler with a team that is looking to squeeze into the CHC Tier 4 Championship it would be nice to have current standings updated.

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:23 pm

      My apologies – i am back from international travel today.

  21. CT Hockey Dad

    January 11, 2019 at 11:57 am

    When are you updating the rankings again?

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:23 pm

      My apologies – i am back from international travel today.

  22. Anonymous

    January 12, 2019 at 1:41 pm

    Is there going to be an update soon? 18 days is a long time for no update when it is supposed to be done weekly

    • Admin

      January 12, 2019 at 4:03 pm

      My apologies – i am back from international travel today.

  23. Anonymous

    January 17, 2019 at 2:52 pm

    Useless when there is not update

  24. Hockey Guy

    January 17, 2019 at 5:09 pm

    Update soon?

    • Admin

      January 17, 2019 at 6:48 pm

      Just completed

  25. Admin

    January 17, 2019 at 6:50 pm

    That is correct.
    The log has all the games, but only the 1st two count.

  26. Anonymous

    January 17, 2019 at 11:36 pm

    Four and a half months into this seasons ranking’s and teams are still moving 5 slots based on one league game, passing teams that have beaten them handily. The system seems absurdly volitile this deep in.

    • Admin

      January 24, 2019 at 3:58 pm

      Please provide detail as to the game you are referring to and I will take a look.

      • Anon

        February 1, 2019 at 1:25 pm

        I agree with above comment. We have swung (down) 5 slots after going 2-0 two weeks ago and another 4 slots down after going 1-0-1 this past weekend. How can we drop 9 slots this late in the season? How did we get to 9th after 4.5 months to drop to 18 two weeks later? It’s not like we got blown out 4 games in a row. Makes no sense. Shouldn’t the body of work over 4.5 months have a huge weighting? Love an explanation. Did you get one? Thanks for your help Admin.

      • Anon

        February 5, 2019 at 3:26 pm

        This took place with a game between South Windsor and Darien Squirt A1. A loss by Darien Squirt A1 on January 19th had them drop from (roughly) 12th to 20th while South Windsor jumped from 20th to 9th. It seems that there is something wrong with a formula which can permit that much swing in the last month of the season. Particularly where a given team could be suffering from circumstances beyond their control. Under this formula, if potential T2 team gets hit with the flu or an injury for one game, or the refs are having a bad day, they can drop to the bottom of T3. Likely not a great result for the other “true” T3 teams. The system seems pretty close, but perhaps you need to drop the results which are the largest outliers against the spread?

        • Admin

          February 5, 2019 at 5:00 pm

          Certainly, illness, players on vacation, or a bad nights sleep can all have an impact on performance.

          Please also consider:

          1) Volatility also benefits teams on their way up the ladder. If the volatility is dampened, the rating of a team would likely not have reached the high water mark that you observed.
          2) There is inherent volatility in the ratings due to the fact that teams RAPIDLY IMPROVE every week due to coaching, physical growth, team chemistry. No team will claim to degrade over time.
          3) There is an argument to be made that the most recent games are a much more important indicator than how a team performed even as little as 4 months ago. I have applied the methodology to NHL teams and the results are more consistent and the variability is quite limited. The bantam and pee wee levels are extremely volatile for what i believe is due to the rapid team improvement.

          Rating volatility will be considered again for next year.

          Thank you for the points you raise here and the commentary of Mr. Davis.

    • Crosby

      February 4, 2019 at 9:15 am

      Totally agree! How does a team that doesnt play in a weekend move up 3 slots and bump a team that won and tied???

  27. Anonymous

    January 22, 2019 at 9:48 am

    “strength of schedule” is weighed far too heavily in my opinion. Take Ridgefield AA, currently the #7 ranked Bantam team. They are 3-13 in CHC play, having scored 28 goals while allowing 76. (excluding their 2-13 record in the EJEPHL). They lose by an average of 3 goals a game in CHC play. They deserve to be in the tier2 playoff because they scheduled themselves to get trounced?

    • Admin

      January 24, 2019 at 3:58 pm

      As you know, the rating engine focuses on goal differential and opponent strength.
      It is blind to W/L record. I believe it is a better strength indicator than wins/losses.

      Agreed that AA Ridgefield’s record is not great, but their goal differentials against top teams is very respectable.
      Lost to Wonderland A1 (#7) by only 1 goal
      Defeated Simsbury (#8) by 3 goals
      Lost to Southern by 4 goals – that’s alot but Southern appears to be very strong

      • Anonymous

        January 26, 2019 at 4:24 pm

        Ridgefield AA also lost to Southern by 7 the other time they played them. They just lost to Darien by 6. Lost to New Canaan by 3, which I guess is an improvement over their previous loss to them by 8.

        If you want to be in the tier 2 tournament, just schedule A teams from good programs. Doesn’t matter if you get your brains beat in like Ridgefield does.

      • anonymous

        January 29, 2019 at 11:10 am

        I thought only the first two games against an opponent count towards the ratings? If so the 4 goal loss to Southern does not help because they lost by 7 goals twice.

      • Anonymous

        January 31, 2019 at 4:04 pm

        Updated: In 18 games, Ridgefield AA has scored 32 goals in CHC games this season. They have allowed 84. (84-32)/18 = average loss of 2.888 goals per game. I would not agree that is respectable.

        The above post cherry picks results. In January alone, they have lost to Darien (#3) 6-0, to GSC (#6) 6-4 and to Wonderland A1 (behind them at #9) 3-2.

        They should not be in tier 2.

  28. John Q Hockey

    January 23, 2019 at 2:59 pm

    2 weeks left in season. When can we expect the next ratings update? Thank you!

    • Admin

      January 24, 2019 at 3:38 pm

      Ratings are updated

  29. Anonymous

    January 24, 2019 at 2:34 pm

    When is the next update? You need to be consistent or this site is worthless

  30. Hockey Hockey

    January 28, 2019 at 1:51 pm

    take a look at the peewee ratings after 13 or 14 they are way off between 15 – 30 get it right so kids don’t get crushed in tournament for no reason.

  31. Harry B Player

    January 29, 2019 at 11:56 am

    When will the ratings be updated next?

    • Admin

      February 5, 2019 at 3:44 pm

      hopefully this evening

  32. Anonymous

    January 30, 2019 at 11:48 am

    update today?

  33. Anonymous

    January 30, 2019 at 12:48 pm

    Any idea when the next update will be available?

  34. David

    January 31, 2019 at 10:32 am

    Hi Admin:

    Thank you for your hard work!

    One question – Darien B has won its last 3 countable games by scores of 8-5 against East Haven A1 on Jan 13, 5-0 against Greenwich Skate A1 on Jan 18, and 7-0 against Hamden B on Jan 27. However, Darien B has seen its power rating drop from 76.38 as of Jan 6, to 76.11 as of Jan 13, to 76.08 as of Jan 23, to 75.81 as of Jan 30. (The other games Darien B played since Jan 13 do not count toward the ratings, as the wins/losses were either 3rd games against the same team or outside of the CHC.) Specifically, Darien B’s rating dropped from 76.08 to 75.81 even though its only countable game was a 7-0 victory (against an albeit weaker rated team).

    Can you please review? Thank you!

    Best wishes and keep up the good work!

    • Admin

      February 5, 2019 at 3:59 pm

      Sorry for the late reply, but it appears that Darien B has since made a climb back up the ladder and the opponents you mentioned here settled to a level more appropriate with the results you noted.

      – Admin

  35. David

    January 31, 2019 at 11:18 am

    Dear Admin:

    I took a look at your xlsx file, through 1-30-2019. All of the Darien B games appear to be listed in the file, including two, third games played against the same opponent – i.e., a third game played against Stamford A1 (a 1-1 tie on 1/6/2019) and a third game played against New Canaan A1 (4-3 loss on 1/26/2019).

    Does your computer rating system ignore the games played against the same opponent after the second game?

    Thank you for your consideration and keep up the good work!

    • Admin

      February 5, 2019 at 3:46 pm

      yes. system ignores games played against same opponent after 2nd game.

  36. Anonymous

    January 31, 2019 at 11:25 am

    Hi- thanks for the work you put into doing this. I have a question for the peewee level: Two weeks ago Darien A was ranked #8. They have since not beaten anyone in the top 15, yet their overall number improved and they moved to #5 this week. Does the equation you are using work in favor of a team beating up on a #22 team (9-0 over Riverhawks)to jump in the rankings? Any info on how Darien could move to 5 based on their last two weeks of play is appreciated.

    • Admin

      February 5, 2019 at 4:10 pm

      When a stronger team plays a weaker team, the stronger team can improve its ladder position by winning by more than the predicted margin.
      Some believe that each team should play a mix of teams that are stronger and weaker than your own team. However, some teams never do this and end up playing only teams that are weaker (or stronger) so the rating method works in all cases.
      If Darien A won by a margin that was greater than the expected margin, it would climb even though it did not play any teams rated above it.

  37. David

    January 31, 2019 at 1:40 pm

    Dear Admin:

    Strength of schedule seems to create Potential leverage issues, and the clearest example can be seen with Darien B and CT Riverhawks B last weekend.

    Darien B wins its sole game last weekend by a score of 7-0 against a weaker Hamden B team, and Darien B’s rating ends up DROPPING by 0.27 points. Meanwhile, CT Riverhawks B last weekend beats a weaker Greenwich Skate A1 team by a score of 6-0, but then LOSES its next game to Yale A by a score 9-2, which is greater than max differential of 6 goals. However, CT Riverhawks B’s rating RISES from 76.87 to 76.91.

    So, if Darien B had scheduled a second game last weekend against New Canaan Squirt A (the top ranked team) and loses a score of 9-2 or whatever (6+ goals counts as 6 goals), then would Darien B’s rating have gone UP as well rather than DOWN?

    Should teams wishing to make the playoffs NOT schedule any games against teams ranked in the bottom two-thirds, because even if they win by a score of 7 or 8 or even 10 to 0, their rating might drop?

    • Admin

      February 5, 2019 at 4:14 pm

      It really depends on the rating of each team before the game is played.
      I don’t mean to sound insensitive or cavalier, but each team puts their rating on the line when they step on the ice.
      The only way to protect a rating is to not to play.

  38. Glenn Smeltzer

    January 31, 2019 at 2:53 pm

    Can you please provide background on both West Hartford PW A1 and Southern PW A1’s jump this week (1.5 rating jump). At this point in the season with the amount of games played I find it hard to believe that a jump of that magnitude would be possible – unless a team plays a team well above their ranking and exceeds the score differential. Which I don’t believe is the case with either.

  39. Anonymous

    January 31, 2019 at 3:00 pm

    Please explain / provide background on Southern PW A1 and West Hartford PW A1 jump in standings this past week. Both had over a 1.5 rating increase in one week which seems mathematically impossible this late in the season with the amount of games. Southern A1 only posted one result from this past weekend as well – which makes it even harder to understand the jump for them. Just looking for an understanding.

  40. Anon

    January 31, 2019 at 3:29 pm

    There are some interesting swings from time to time here. For instance a 13th ranked squirt team and a 20th ranked squirt team swapping places in the rankings because they faced each other head to head and the underdog won by an unusual margin.

    If the objective is just to stack based on head to head wins and losses, it would matter less, but since this is also used to attempt to determine the appropriate tiers for the state tournaments, it seems that including outlier games will create undesired results. For instance, if a team is plagued with an illness for a weekend, or if the refs in a given game have an off day, you can end up with an objectively better team from a season long view having a lower ranking and being misplaced in the state tiers, or vice-versa.

    It seems that the formula should either underweight outlier results, or discard one of each outlier win and loss for each team. Particularly when such an outlier can result in a 10 place swing.

  41. Dad

    February 3, 2019 at 9:08 pm

    When will the final rankings be posted by this week?

  42. Crosby

    February 4, 2019 at 8:44 am

    There seems to be a lot of discrepancies in the rating calculations. Not sure how a team that can win and tie in one weekend drop 3 spots and another team that didnt play move up? Teams with a lot of losses are way ahead of teams with more wins and those teams higher are playing lower level teams that are A1 and B

  43. Anonymous

    February 5, 2019 at 9:31 am

    when will final ratings be updated?

  44. anonymous

    February 5, 2019 at 9:34 am

    Are comments being updated?

  45. Hockey Dad

    February 5, 2019 at 3:04 pm

    When will the final ratings be posted by?

  46. Hockey Dad

    October 2, 2019 at 10:39 am

    When are the new rankings going to be posted for the 2019-2020 season. Looking forward to a fun season

  47. Hockey Dad

    October 3, 2019 at 5:18 pm

    When are the 2019-2020 ratings going to be posted??

  48. Hockey Dad

    October 10, 2019 at 3:22 pm

    When are this year rating going to get posted. They were suppose to be live by 9/22 and still not up yet.

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